Modeling Spatio-Temporal Divergence in Land Vulnerability to Desertification with Local Regressions

Taken as a classical issue in applied economics, the notion of ‘convergence’ is based on concept path dependence, i.e., from previous trajectory undertaken by system during its recent history. Going beyond social science, perspective has been more recently adopted environmental studies. Spatial convergence non-linear processes, such desertification risk, meaningful since represents (possibly unsustainable) development socio-ecological systems towards land degradation regional or local scale. In this study, we test—in line with approach—long-term equilibrium conditions evolution processes Italy, European country significant socioeconomic and disparities. Assuming path-dependent risk provided diachronic analysis Environmental Sensitive Area Index (ESAI), estimated at disaggregated spatial resolution three times (1960s, 1990s, 2010s) history using spatially explicit approach geographically weighted regressions (GWRs). The results show dependence first time interval (1960–1990). A less evidence for path-dependence was observed second period (1990–2010); both cases, models’ goodness-of-fit (global adjusted R2) satisfactory. strong polarization along latitudinal gradient characterized observation period: Southern Italian experienced worse (e.g., climate aridity, urbanization) level vulnerability Northern Italy remained quite stable, alimenting traditional divergence characteristic country. empirical delineated complex picture period. Convergence (leading to stability, even improvement, risk) some areas evident because urban sprawl crop intensification) were observed, leading an undesired homogenization toward higher levels. Finally, work suggests importance approaches providing relevant information design effective policy strategies. case regression models oriented perspective, may be uncover genesis hotspots